Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3975
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3975 · DCA → SYR
departs 10:59 PM ET · arrives 12:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.