Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3999 · GCK → DFW
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave GCK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at GCK that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GCK (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.20 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.