Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
OO 4012 · MSP → XNA
departs 2:34 PM CT · arrives 4:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1 22%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.90 in
XNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.