Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
OO 4012 · MSP → XNA
departs 2:34 PM CT · arrives 4:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 9/30 19%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.