Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
OO 4012 · MSP → XNA
departs 2:34 PM CT · arrives 4:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 22%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.