Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
OO 4012 · XNA → MSP
departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 26%
Thu 10/1 24%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.