Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 586 LANDED 4:12 PM CT, ~4 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

UA 586 · DEN → MCI

took off 1:58 PM MT · landed 4:12 PM CT (scheduled 1:40 PM MT → 4:22 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 586 · DEN → MCI

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCI?