Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 1157 · MDW → DCA
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 53%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 33%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.