Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1157 · MDW → DCA
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 45%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 33%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,467 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.