Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 1157 · MDW → DCA
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 33%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
75%
chance · ±0 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
75%
Leave 15+ late
71%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.