Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1157 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

WN 1157 · MDW → DCA

departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1157 · MDW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?