Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 3004 · MCO → MSY
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 38%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.