Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 3004 · MCO → MSY
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 2:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 9/30 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.