Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 3004 · MCO → MSY
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.