Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3004 · MCO → MSY
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 1:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/1 39%
Fri 10/2 32%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.18 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.93 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.