Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 4228 · SFO → BUR
departs 7:40 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 37%
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.