YX 4382 · DCA → DTW

took off 3:23 PM ET · landed 4:31 PM ET (scheduled 3:07 PM ET → 5:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DTW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4382 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DTW?