Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4672 LANDED 8:50 PM ET, ~46 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4672 · DCA → SDF

took off 7:38 PM ET · landed 8:50 PM ET (scheduled 7:45 PM ET → 9:40 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SDF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4672 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SDF?