Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4730 LANDED 2:56 PM ET, ~29 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

YX 4730 · DCA → LGA

took off 2:13 PM ET · landed 2:56 PM ET (scheduled 1:59 PM ET → 3:31 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4730 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?