Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4730 · DCA → LGA
departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 3:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.