Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4730 · DCA → LGA
departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 3:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 34%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.