Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4730 LANDED 3:09 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4730 · DCA → LGA

took off 2:28 PM ET · landed 3:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4730 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time