Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4730 · DCA → LGA
departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 3:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 39%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 34%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.06 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.