Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1278 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CHS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?