AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

departs 7:46 AM CT · arrives 9:07 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?