Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3041 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?