Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
DL 1856 · SNA → DTW
departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 35%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from SNA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.