Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
DL 2454 · TPA → LGA
departs 6:44 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 69%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.