Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1112 LANDED 8:52 AM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

F9 1112 · MCO → RDU

took off 7:26 AM ET · landed 8:52 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1112 · MCO → RDU

Odds over time