Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 2836 · TPA → PHL
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 1:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.