Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3417 · BHM → DFW
departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 79%
Fri 10/2 66%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±2 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.