Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3515 · EYW → MIA
departs 11:28 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 24%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
EYW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.92 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.