Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3823 · TPA → BNA
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 5:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 55%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.