Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3969 · DFW → AEX
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 5:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 79%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+49 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
41%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed +49 pts in 24h
+49 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +29 pts in 24h
+29 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +38 pts in 24h
+38 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
How late will it get to AEX?
On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
41%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
AEX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
AEX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.