Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3991
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3991 · DCA → BNA
departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 2:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.