Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4079 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 4079 · DFW → LIT

departs 9:11 PM CT · arrives 10:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

LIT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4079 · DFW → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?