Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4260
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
MQ 4260 · DFW → AVL
departs 7:30 PM CT · arrives 10:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 39%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±1 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at AVL that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.