Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5138 · OKC → DCA

departs 4:51 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
24%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OKC that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late nan% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.62 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5138 · OKC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?