Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1869 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1869 · IAD → SAT

took off 6:16 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:45 PM ET → 8:22 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1869 · IAD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?