Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3439
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 3439 · EWR → ORF
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 28%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.