Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 3643 · EWR → ROC
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.