Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1278 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 9:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at CHS that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

CHS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1278 · DCA → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?