Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3263 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 3263 · CLT → DCA

departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3263 · CLT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?