Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3263 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3263 · CLT → DCA

departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 6:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3263 · CLT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?