Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 1234 · MCO → RDU
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.