Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
MQ 3823 · BNA → TPA
departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 4:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 41%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.