OO 4632 · ACV → SFO

departs 4:04 PM PT · arrives 5:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 56% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ACV (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4632 · ACV → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?