Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2924
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 2924 · MIA → BWI
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 5:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.06 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.