Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2924
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2924 · MIA → BWI
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MIA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.