Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 3438 · RIC → BWI
departs 6:15 AM ET · arrives 7:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 5%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 7%
Wed 10/7 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.